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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 13

New England Patriots 3 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(6:30) 3-S.Gostkowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.78 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 13, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 23, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model