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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 53

New England Patriots 3 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(11:03) 6-R.Allen punts 26 yards to BUF 27, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-47-J.Hollister.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.78 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 53, worth -3.04 EP
KICK -2.13 EP
  • 16% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 84% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 15, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP