Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 80

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – New York Jets 7

(5:55) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to NYJ 32, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 87-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -3.05 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.15 EP
71% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 80, worth -4.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model