4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 20

New York Jets 27 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(11:28) 7-C.Catanzaro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.05 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 20, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model