Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 80

New York Jets 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

(10:55) 4-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to KC 40, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at NYJ 36 for 24 yards (4-L.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.71 EP
65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 80, worth -4.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model