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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 72

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – New York Jets 27

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 2-D.Colquitt punts 50 yards to NYJ 22, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 87-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.18 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 72, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 30, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP