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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 29

New York Jets 24 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(3:30) 7-C.Catanzaro 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.51 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 29, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 39, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model