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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 18

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(2:53) 7-H.Butker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.42 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 18, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 28, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model