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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 79

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(14:51) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to DET 27, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-T.Jones to DET 36 for 9 yards (48-P.Onwuasor).

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.26 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 79, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 36, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model