Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 71

Detroit Lions 20 – Baltimore Ravens 44

(:36) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to BAL 17, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 12-M.Campanaro ran ob at BAL 27 for 10 yards.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.54 EP
60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -2.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model