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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 69

Detroit Lions 7 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(7:34) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to BAL 22, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.39 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 69, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 27, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP