Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 63

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Detroit Lions 7

(9:20) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 41 yards to DET 22, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 13-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.17 EP
65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 63, worth -3.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model