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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 88

Detroit Lions 0 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(:22) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 33 yards to DET 45, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

The Three Options

GO -3.13 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.26 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 88, worth -4.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 46, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model