Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 69

Detroit Lions 0 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(4:09) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 49 yards to BAL 20, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 12-M.Campanaro to BAL 29 for 9 yards (26-D.Carey). FUMBLES (26-D.Carey), recovered by BAL-26-M.Canady at BAL 30. 26-M.Canady to BAL 30 for no gain (34-Z.Zenner).

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.34 EP
74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 69, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model