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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 25

Detroit Lions 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(12:55) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.26 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 35, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model