Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 56

Miami Dolphins 2 – Denver Broncos 0

(1:33) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.07 EP
67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 56, worth -2.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model