4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 46

Miami Dolphins 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(4:35) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 37 yards to DEN 9, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 84-I.McKenzie. PENALTY on DEN-41-J.Garcia-Williams, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at DEN 9.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.30 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 46, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 13, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP