Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 82

Denver Broncos 9 – Miami Dolphins 35

What Actually Happened

(5:01) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to MIA 28, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at 50 for 22 yards (20-J.Carter). DEN-43-J.Jones was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PENALTY on MIA-46-N.Hewitt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.73 EP
59% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 82, worth -4.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model