4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 45

Miami Dolphins 26 – Denver Broncos 9

What Actually Happened

(12:10) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 39 yards to DEN 6, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-46-N.Hewitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.05 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 45, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP