Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 89

Denver Broncos 9 – Miami Dolphins 26

(14:56) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to MIA 48, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.53 EP
62% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 89, worth -5.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model