Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 74

Denver Broncos 9 – Miami Dolphins 26

What Actually Happened

(2:09) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to MIA 23, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 19-J.Grant to 50 for 27 yards (31-J.Simmons; 42-C.Kreiter). DEN-31-J.Simmons was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 74, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model