Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 19 at the 64

Denver Broncos 3 – Miami Dolphins 19

What Actually Happened

(8:25) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by 78-T.Fede, Center-42-C.Kreiter, RECOVERED by MIA-31-M.Thomas at DEN 20. 31-M.Thomas ran ob at DEN 20 for no gain. PENALTY on MIA-78-T.Fede, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 20.

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.95 EP
77% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 64, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model