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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 49

Denver Broncos 3 – Miami Dolphins 16

What Actually Happened

(5:01) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to MIA 13, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.17 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.92 EP
KICK -1.76 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.94 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model