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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 17 at the 65

Denver Broncos 3 – Miami Dolphins 16

What Actually Happened

(6:55) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to MIA 16, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 14-J.Landry to MIA 11 for -5 yards (16-B.Fowler).

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.63 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 65, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 23, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model