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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 27

Tennessee Titans 3 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(1:57) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.70 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 27, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 37, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model