4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 11

Tennessee Titans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(7:58) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +2.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.20 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP