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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 78

Indianapolis Colts 16 – Tennessee Titans 20

What Actually Happened

(4:04) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to TEN 28, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 28 for no gain (28-C.Milton).

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.15 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 78, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 35, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model