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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 68

Indianapolis Colts 16 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(11:31) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to TEN 23, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.69 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 68, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 26, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP