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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 82

Tennessee Titans 13 – Indianapolis Colts 16

What Actually Happened

(12:57) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 58 yards to IND 24, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-C.Rogers ran ob at IND 24 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.76 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 82, worth -4.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 40, worth -2.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model