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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 47

Tennessee Titans 6 – Indianapolis Colts 16

What Actually Happened

(3:04) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 30 yards to IND 17, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.90 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 47, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.44 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 13, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP