4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 12 at the 24

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(6:11) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.17 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model