Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 72

Tennessee Titans 6 – Indianapolis Colts 13

(13:14) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to IND 21, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-33-T.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 72, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model