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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 46

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(6:41) 5-B.Pinion punts 30 yards to SEA 16, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.34 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 46, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -0.93 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT +0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 13, worth +0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model