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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 18

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(:19) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 19-A.Robinson to SEA 10 for 8 yards (30-B.McDougald). Caught at SEA 10. 0-YAC

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +2.83 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 18, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.91 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 28, worth -0.11 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.62 EP