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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 30

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:34) 7-B.Walsh 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.30 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model