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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 50

Seattle Seahawks 21 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(7:05) 9-J.Ryan punts 40 yards to SF 10, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.50 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -1.46 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP