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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 52

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Seattle Seahawks 21

What Actually Happened

(11:55) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to SEA 10, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.80 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 52, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 15, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model