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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 24

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(9:24) 9-R.Gould 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.77 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 34, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT +0.45 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model