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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 73

Seattle Seahawks 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:01) 9-J.Ryan punts 32 yards to SF 41, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds. PENALTY on SF-26-G.Mabin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 41.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.02 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.63 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP