Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 15 at the 63

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

(7:32) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to SEA 20, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.89 EP
74% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 63, worth -3.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model