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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 61

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to SEA 19, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 27 for 8 yards (27-D.McCoil). rain beginning to fall.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.91 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 61, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 20, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model