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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 56

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(11:53) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to SEA 14, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.84 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 56, worth -2.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 17, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP