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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 54

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 9-J.Ryan punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.55 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 54, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP