4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 37

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(14:21) 9-B.Wing punts 32 yards to WAS 5, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-41-D.Rodgers-Cromartie.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.11 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 37, worth -2.17 EP
KICK +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.30 EP