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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 69

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(6:47) 9-B.Wing punts 42 yards to WAS 27, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.63 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 69, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 27, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model