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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 68

New York Giants 10 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(2:19) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning sacked at NYG 24 for -8 yards (58-J.Galette). FUMBLES (58-J.Galette) [58-J.Galette], recovered by NYG-75-J.Halapio at NYG 19. Penalty on NYG-74-E.Flowers, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.39 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 68, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 26, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model