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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 68

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:06) 9-B.Wing punts 47 yards to WAS 21, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 13-M.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.70 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 68, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 26, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model