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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 84

New York Giants 10 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(8:44) 9-B.Wing punts 44 yards to WAS 40, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-83-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.31 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 84, worth -4.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 42, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model