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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 55

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(11:54) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +3.07 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 55, worth -2.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 16, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.66 EP