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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 86

New York Giants 3 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(10:14) 9-B.Wing punts 50 yards to WAS 36, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-J.Crowder to 50 for 14 yards (29-N.Berhe).

The Three Options

GO -3.15 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.84 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 86, worth -5.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 44, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model